עמוד זה נועד לרכז את הודעות ועדכוני Profimex ושותפיה האסטרטגיים בנושא משבר הקורונה והשפעתו על השקעות נדל”ן בכלל והשקעות Profimex בפרט, לנוחותכם ולעיונכם.
Sam Zell is Ready for a Big Distressed Real Estate Deal –
?Can American Skyscrapers Survive the Coronavirus –
Construction Costs Expected to Ease for Apartment Developers –
Remote Work Is Here to Stay, But Office Footprints Likely Won’t Shrink –
US Office Vacancy Rate at Historic Low Despite Pandemic –
From New York to Houston, Flood Risk for Real Estate Hubs Ramps Up –
Some Types of Office Tenants are Returning Faster than Others –
The Recovery Will Look Like a Nike Swoosh –
Online Grocery Sales Still Surging, But Down from April Peak –
The Role of Great Offices in the Future of Work –
The Car Is King Once More: Markets With Less Transit Could Be More Popular –
Facebook Looks to Lease Neiman Marcus’ Hudson Yards Flagship As Office –
A recent market report, published by Savills, a global real estate service provider and public firm, reveals some interesting trends in the UK commercial real estate industry.
NYC Apartment Vacancy Soars as New Lease Signings Plummet –
Future of Investing Goes to Second-Tier Cities and College Towns –
Mall of America Said to Miss Another Payment on Mortgage Debt –
Brookfield Doubles Down on Rent-Stretched Retailers –
Last week, New York City voted to freeze rent for the roughly two-million New Yorkers living in rent-regulated units for one-year. This was voted in by the Rent Guidelines Board, which is a panel that sets the rent for New York City’s one-million rent-regulated apartments. The rent freeze will be in effect from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021
Omar Eltorai, the market analyst at Reonomy, believes that real estate prices will not depreciate the same way they did during the last financial crisis. He believes that there is strong investor appetitive for commercial real estate and multifamily and that lenders are in much better health than they were in the last financial crisis. “Bringing all of these factors together and looking at multifamily across the nation, I believe that the next 18 to 24 months will show many properties selling at discounts to last years’ highs. Though there will be greater pricing support than the last recession from the large amount of appetite and dry powder ready to be deployed
Property valuations are an essential part of the real estate business. Without a valuation, no transaction can be done with certainty. The process of valuing a property is by many consider both art and science. As a result of the pandemic, this job has become more difficult than it has ever been. Many factors need to be given extra consideration, including anticipation of future benefits, supply and demand/desire, substitution/comparison, balance (the relationship between cost, added cost, and returns), and progression/regression (increases or decreases in the price of a property with perceived value). Multiple market-derived assumptions and methodologies will be necessary to develop a fair and reliable value based on current market conditions. To assess the current market, it will be important to survey brokers, investors, and other market participants. While there are different methods to value a property, the discounted cash flow method is likely to be the best option, as the valuer projects financial performance over a period of years
Across the real estate industry many commercial properties are beginning to be repurposed for a post COVID-19 world. Newmeyer Dillion partner Mike Krueger explains that, “We’re going to see very creative developers come in and repurpose those properties for their next use,” Krueger says. “At this stage, we don’t even know what the best use of some properties will be.” However, some properties are already starting to be repurposed such as malls for medical use, such as a hospital or medical office
As previously communicated, the hotel sector is one the sectors that is hit the hardest by the pandemic. In the month of April, revenue per available room was down 96% for the year and most U.S. hotels had to suspend operations to minimize expenses. A recent report by the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts showed statistics for May that indicate that the worst may lie behind us. The reopening phase of the economy is expected to continue in more business and leisure travellers. Adding to the optimism is the most recent jobs report by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, noting that 2.5 million jobs were added in May
Many companies that are choosing to bring back their employees to the office are considering how to bring them back after employees have been working from home for a couple of months already. As a result, companies have begun to implement of a hybrid model that offers workers greater flexibility; whereby, workers would be allowed to work in the office and at home. This could help reduce square footage in expensive urban markets. As a result, industry speculation suggests that offices won’t return to their former density
The novel Corona pandemic has forced shutdowns of many industries in the U.S. economy, including some real estate sectors. However, despite the challenging environment, affordable housing development has continued to move forward. While developers and investors have continued to work with federal, state, and local officials to keep their projects running, the projects experience higher expenses and longer development times. To ensure the safety of the construction workers certain measures had to be taken, such as working in shifts and more frequent cleanings. Other factors influencing the development is the difficulty of receiving the certificate of occupancy, as building inspectors are unable to reach the property due to restrictions
Urban Land Institute (ULI) recently published its Reshaping Retail report which explains that COVID-19 will likely accelerate the restructuring of the retail property sector in the European market. The reason is primarily due to store closures, a negative economic outlook, and lower valuations based on a lower projected rental income. The closure of many businesses and stores has created additional challenges to already disrupted sector
The head of Real Estate for Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Karsten Kallevig, believes that the entire concept of offices is unlikely to disappear. The concept of offices has recently been challenged by economists who believe that offices may become less relevant in the future, as result of a growing number of companies announcing plans to continue letting people work from home. Kallevig argues against such perception and further believes that the fund’s $30 billion portfolio will not fall short of its annual 7.7%. He also believes there will be opportunities in the aftermath of the pandemic
Looking ahead in 2020 and beyond, Forbes explains that understanding which market will be most attractive post-COVID-19 will be different than traditional analysis. Generally, the strongest real estate markets will be ones that have high job creation to spur demand for housing and commercial real estate. However, with job losses in virtually every market in the US, it’s important to approach real estate investing in a different manner today
The Distressed Deals Have Started
Barry Sternlicht, chief executive at Starwood, mentioned in April that the firm was “on offence” and looking for opportunities thrown up by the pandemic. He now closed on the first of those opportunities with a $325M investment into a mortgage REIT, managed by TPG. This is one of the first significant distressed real estate deals to be completed since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. The REIT owns 65 senior mortgages and one mezzanine loan, totalling $5.8B
Amid the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market, prices continue to hold firm. Anecdotal evidence shows that demand for housing may rise in certain markets, as households want to relocate. JLL says that despite the pressures in the housing market, there are good signs that the US economy is beginning to reawaken. “Yet those slight improvements, coupled with the continued shutdown of other components of the economy, suggest further struggles ahead,” wrote contributor Ryan Severino in JLL’s report.
Mayer Brown, a leading global law firm for real estate firms and other financial institutions, recently released their outlook on trends that may shape the office market post COVID-19. The first trend is a reversal of office space densification. Whereas before COVID-19, tenants have been lowering their office space usage and adapting open floor policies. With outbreak of COVID-19, employers now are abiding by government health guidelines that require additional space for workers
According to a recent survey, published by Savills, 26% of the respondents are planning to resume their acquisition strategies in the second quarter of 2020, while additional 41% are planning to resume acquisition in the third quarter of 2020. This indicates that the scope of the negative impact on the investment market will be reasonably limited. Investor sentiment was strongest towards the business space market, namely industrial, logistics, and office
מפגש אינטרנטי בו אירחה Praedium Group, משותפיה האסטרטגיים של פרופימקס, את ד”ר פיטר מויו, לדיון לגבי השפעת ה-covid-19 על הכלכלה בארה”ב ושוק הנדל”ן.
ד”ר פיטר מויו, הינו השותף המייסד והמנהל של חברת הייעוץ הכלכלי Mast Insights, המספקת שירותי ייעוץ כלכלי וכלים אנליטיים למשקיעים ומלווים בשוק הנדל”ן ולסקטורים השונים.
Keen real estate buyers are waiting on the side-lines for sellers to break off the standoff over asset pricing. Nathan Whigham, president of EN Capital and other investors believe that it is only a question of time until seller are willing to sell and the time will most likely come by the end of the summer. “Unless someone comes up with a vaccine tomorrow, I don’t see how we don’t get to a point between now and the end of the year, if not probably at the end of the summer, where people are forced into a position where they have to transact,” Whigham says
CBRE, one of the largest commercial real estate services and investment firms, believes that there will be an increased demand for warehouse space, caused by changes to business supply chains. Given that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a strong decrease in decrease in import and exports, companies may have to develop more domestically orientated supply chains. This may result in additional 400 to 500 million square feet of warehouse space. Further, as people continue to follow social distancing guidelines, a rise in e-commerce use is expected, demanding extra warehouse space
As the economic crisis from Covid-19 continues to impact the US real estate market, effective retail rents are projected to continue to fall 11% in 2020. This would be nearly twice as large of a drop compared to the 2008 recession. Moody predicts that retail will be the hardest hit sector as a result of Covid-19. That is because traditional retail was already experience a disruption from the rise of e-commerce, and Covid-19 only accelerated this process
Two months ago, when the Fed decreased the rates to close to zero, the market anticipated a wave of refinancings for commercial real estate. However, as the full extent of the pandemic paralysed much the economy, those voices came to a halt. However, now that the market can quantify the extent of the downturn and has a better understand of the long-term perspective of asset classes, traditional lending sources are coming back to the table to discuss refinancings. Especially, well-positioned multifamily assets are likely to receive favourable debt instruments
The economic research consultancy, Capital Economics, believes that the most important driver of office occupier demand over the coming years will be the impact of the disruption from the COVID-19 on employment. However, the disruption covered in this article is not the disruption that so many other real estate professionals predict, the increase in home-office employment, but rather the job losses brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. “And even if working from home becomes more prevalent in the next few years, we think that the most important driver of occupier demand will be […] job losses”, according to the research. Their findings suggest that even if employees will continue to work from their home, tenant demand for space will not be necessarily reduced
As the COVID-19 economic crisis continues to hurt demand for travel, many hotel developers are considering putting off construction and looking at new development opportunities. For example, Quinn Palomino, CEO of Virtua Partners, a global private equity firm specializing in commercial real estate, says the company has about half a dozen hospitality projects in “broken construction” that it’s trying to find funding for. She explained that while most of their projects need additional equity, they are looking closely at which projects can produce profitability (returns) and how quickly. “We have to calculate that with post-coronavirus adjusted numbers,” she says. For hotel renovation projects, the negative impact has been even worse. This is because they have on going operational and financing costs on top of the renovation costs
As the institutional real estate investor arena tries to assess the full extent of the Covid-19 pandemic, a recent survey, conducted annually by IPE Real Assets’, proves that most investors had planned to increase the level of investment (42%) over the next 12 months compared to the previous 12 months, or to maintain the same level (47%) (figure 3). Most real estate allocations had been rising (51%) or remaining stable (44%) over the past 18 months (figure 2). In fact, 64% of the survey participants are planning to buy more real estate than to sell, while only 27% are planning to keep their current allocation level
A recent survey of more than 500 US consumers, conducted by First Insight in mid-April, shows that shoppers have different degrees of comfort for distinct types of retail. This insight will be relevant for operators and retail owners, as governors issue new orders that allow some businesses to resume in-store operations. Consumers feel the safest in Grocery Stores (54% of survey participants) and the least safe at Shopping Malls (33% of survey participants). Greg Petro, CEO of First Insight, argues that retailers need to think of ways to ensure safety for consumers, beyond offering gloves and masks at the door
Economists share very different opinions on the extent of the economic decline in the US and the time it will take for the economy to recover. As economic statistics significantly lag those of public health, the full extent of the downturn is not quantifiable at this time. Current estimates from a variety of forecasting organizations however suggest second quarter growth could run from -20% to -40%. Those numbers are reported on a yearly base, which makes them sounds much worse. Second quarter output will contract by “only” -5% to -10%, which is still a historical record high
Many real estate advisory firms are updating their customers and the overall community by issuing reports and conducting regular webinars. Last month, CBRE predicted that the overall US economy will start to see growth as early as 2021, while the commercial real estate industry will have to wait 12 to 30 months. This view has now changed to a more Nike swoosh shape recovery for the real estate industry, described in a more recent Webinar
With the current crisis emerging from COVID-19, the world has entered a new down cycle which will affect all sectors in real estate. While retail, travel and hospitality sectors have been the hardest hit thus far, data centers and industrial space are expected to sustain activity. One of the drivers of declining values appears to be the density of interaction within an asset class as retail, hospitality and even office sectors often require people in close proximity
The current impact on pricing sales is not yet know; however, compared to other property sectors, industrial has been able to better weather economic crisis. That being said, on average, industrial sale prices per square foot dropped 30% during the previous two economic downturns — the Dotcom bust in the early 2000s and the recession that began in 2008 after the financial crisis
As we have previously explained, amid the COVID-19 global pandemic, our immediate goal is to continue to work with our strategic partners in monitoring our existing assets to protect our investors invested capital
Since our last communication relating to coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the situation and its impact on our country and world and of course our portfolio has evolved dramatically. Like many other businesses, we have experienced a dislocation in the operation of our leasing and management operations, but have been most negatively impacted by the closure or workforce reductions of the businesses that employ our residents
According to CoStar, over 17% of deals scheduled to take place in April were called off. For comparison’s sake, the amount more than triples the previous full-quarter high of 5.6% in the first quarter of 2008 as the Great Recession was kicking in
Well over $500 million worth of deals fell through, which was largely driven by individual property owners and regional developers. Additionally, the hotel sector had experienced the largest decline, with 32% of scheduled hotel sales being called off. The dropped hotel deals are just another sign of that sector being in the bull’s-eye of the impact from the spread of the pandemic, said Jan Freitag, senior vice president of lodging insights for STR, a CoStar Group company that tracks hotel data around the world. CoStar is the publisher of CoStar News
Governor of CT executive orders made regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and specific executive order 7x that allows tenants the ability to delay the payment of their rent for the months of April and May for up to 60 days
As we continue to work with our partners and stay up to date on the current COVID-19 crisis, we are noticing that many companies are beginning to invoke a little used legal provision called force majeure to get out of legal obligations. This is not limited to any particular company, we are seeing this occur across industries and countries. From large to small businesses, and from California developers to global energy firms
מגפת המוות השחור והשפעת הספרדית היו הרסניות לתושבים ולכלכלות באירופה. יחד עם זאת, שניהם אירעו לפני ההתקדמות האדירה שחלה בתחום הרפואה במאה העשרים. שני התרשימים שלהלן מראים את תוחלת החיים ושיעורי התמותה בקרב ילודים בצרפת, החל מאמצע המאה ה-17 ועד היום, ומעידים על התפתחות הרפואה במאה העשרים והכלים שיש כיום לרפואה המודרנית להתמודדות עם מגפות ומחלות קשות.
Our investment team participated in the Global Real Estate Web Meeting yesterday, hearing from prominent real estate veterans and institutional investors
On April 20, 2020, Gunner Branson, CEO of AFIRE, and Mary Ludgin,senior managing director & head of global research at Heitman, spoke at lengths about the current real estate environment and what investors might expect to see in a post-COVID-19 world. Attached is a short summary of their conversation, highlighting key points related to real estate investing
Devastatingly disruptive events such as the global virus pandemic, Covid-19, are unforeseen and difficult to plan for… The situation is of course volatile and may in the future necessitate actions including reducing or pausing investor distributions
As we navigate through this unprecedented time, we would like to share the following updates
On March 27, 2020, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was signed into law, making it the largest economic bill in U.S. History. In total, the law will provide federal relief to business, organizations, governments and individuals totaling approximately $2 trillion. We reviewed the law in detail and consulted with our counsel, lenders, tax advisors and partners. In particular, the law includes $349 billion in small business loans under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Importantly, these loans may be forgiven if borrowers maintain their payrolls during the crisis and spend the funds on eligible costs within a certain time period. The maximum loan amount is 2.5 times the borrower’s average monthly salaries, as defined. For all impacted properties, we have applied for this loan and are awaiting lender / SBA approval
The real estate sector that will experience the biggest windfall emerging from the COVID-19 crisis is the industrial sector, more specifically warehouse property owners due to the continued rise of eCommerce, and high demand to ship goods to urban areas that are under quarantine. This can be seen due to companies, like Amazon and Walmart, that operate in distribution and logistics have begun hiring tens of thousands of additional works to fulfill an overwhelming rising in eCommerce demand
Late last week, the Federal Reserve announced an additional monetary stimulus package of $2.3 trillion. This new amount will commit hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to mid-sized business, as well as much-needed support to states and large counties. This new stimulus also includes support for CMBS, as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) will now include legacy CMBS as eligible collateral, according to the CRE Finance Council. This is a significant step in the recovery of the real estate debt market
,Dear Profimex Team
We hope you are all staying safe and healthy
Please see the attached note detailing the current status of the MID. In short, things are progressing well, but we are closely monitoring events. We will be sure to keep you posted
Please let us know if you would like to discuss this in more detail. We are happy to set up a time to speak
,All the best
להלן תמצית של מספר תובנות, בהסתכלות קדימה, של טארוס, אחת משותפותיה האסטרטגיות הותיקות של פרופימקס, כפי שפורסמו במכתב למשקיעים ממנכ”ל טארוס. האמור מתבסס על ניתוח התפתחות המשבר, על פי הנתונים הידועים כיום, ובהתבסס על נסיונם רב השנים בתחומי הנדל”ן ובראייה של פרוטפוליו הנכסים המגוון המנוהל על ידיהם כיום.
As our team is constantly monitoring the current market environment and working with our partners on managing our portfolio, here are some more in dept review regarding the geography of Coronavirus and metros with highest employment risk
As our team is constantly monitoring the current market environment and working with our partners on managing our portfolio, we would like to share some interesting news articles and graphs that we have seen over the past week
We hope you and your families are staying healthy and safe in these interesting times. Please find attached the recent report from JLL Research regarding global real estate implications from COVID-19, and two articles from external sources – focusing on the recent steps being enacted by U.S. Congress to combat its domestic economic impacts, and a detailed look at the effects to property values. SSI continues to adjust as new information becomes available with the changing economic landscape. Our team is meeting virtually on a regular basis to discuss risks in the market, capital, real estate in general and how it has or may impact the portfolio. Our initial focus is on the current portfolio and pipeline – where the risks are and how to prioritize our actions. We are actively evaluating and assessing opportunities that may present during this transformative period, in addition to remaining engaged in three prospective investment opportunities identified earlier in the year. We expect to have more clarity on these pursuits and an updated timeline in late April
,Dear HQCRE Investors
As HQCRE enters its third week of working remotely, we would like to start by expressing our gratitude to all our investors who have been extremely supportive during these times. The health and safety of our team, investors and our surrounding communities remain a priority for us
Over HQCRE’s 30-year history, we have made it through multiple crises. Open communication with our investors has always been of great importance to us, and this is even more true during these difficult times. For those investors who would like more detail or have questions, we invite you to reach out to us with your concerns. We are also happy to set up one-on-one calls to address any questions you might have
בימים אלו (גם אם בכפכפים ומהבית), אנו ממשיכים לעקוב אחר הנעשה בשווקים, לבחון פרסומים מקצועיים, להשתתף בוובינרים ולהתעדכן מול שותפינו האסטרטגיים; להלן תמצית קצרה לגבי ההתפתחויות משמעותיות בשווקי הנדל”ן בעקבות משבר נגיף הקורונה כפי שידוע לנו בעת משלוח הודעה זו.
אנו עדים בשבועות האחרונים, לתקופה יוצאת דופן ברמה הלאומית והגלובלית בעקבות התפשטות הנגיף COVID-19 (קורונה) בעולם כולו. המצב משתנה מדי יום, ומעמיד אותנו בפני אתגרים רבים, חלקם חדשים לכולנו.
במברגר-רוזנהיים בע”מ, החברה האם של פרופימקס, התמודדה בהצלחה עם מספר משברים כלכלים עולמיים בחמישים שנות פעילותה, אנו מיומנים לפעול בעתות משבר. צוות החברה והנהלתה נערכו להמשיך את הפעילות השוטפת, לשמר את הקיים, בד בבד עם איתור הזדמנויות לתשואה עודפת (“אלפא”) עבור המשקיעים שלנו.
We hope this note finds you healthy and safe during these challenging times
As we monitor the ongoing spread of the coronavirus, the health and safety of our on-site personnel and our residents is of the utmost importance to us. In light of the current situation, we wanted to provide you with an update on several of the operational changes that we are implementing at our properties. Please note we are continually re-evaluating our protocols as conditions on the ground evolve
As a supplement to yesterday’s communication below, we wanted to further share with you the protocols we sent out earlier in the week to our on-site property managers. Please note that these matters are continually evolving and we are monitoring the situation closely. We are also speaking to the on-site staff daily
Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions
,Dear Taurus Investor
As we all deal with the daily changes caused by the COVID-19 crisis, I would like to inform you of the steps Taurus Investment Holdings LLC has taken to protect our staff and client assets
We hope this email finds you well. We are continuing to monitor the changing conditions associated with the Coronavirus Disease. Please see attached for a letter from Rob Reiskin, Senior Managing Director of Round Hill Capital. We want to ensure we are proactively communicating as the situation evolves, as well as remind you that we are always available to take your calls or answer your emails should you have any questions
Head of Investor Relations
Capital Markets Group
Round Hill Capital
בימים אלו אנו נמצאים בעיצומו של משבר עולמי שלא ברור מתי יסתיים ומה יהיו תוצאותיו.
בתוך המשבר אנו מנווטים כמיטב יכולתנו את פעילות הקרנות בכדי להפיק את המירב שניתן מתקופה זו.
אנו זמינים לכל שאלה או בקשה.
מאחלים לך ולמשפחתך בריאות איתנה וחזרה מהירה לשגרה.
עידו בלכר, רו”ח, מנהל קשרי משקיעים ושותפים
,To all Paredim Investors
We have been closely monitoring the issues and uncertainly caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) and have taken multiple steps to protect the well-being of our properties, employees, residents and colleagues, while also ensuring that we will continue to meet our residents’ housing needs during this very challenging time
We hope everyone is safe and doing well. Our thoughts are with those who have been impacted by the COVID-19 global pandemic. As we head into Spring 2020, we would like to share our insights regarding the COVID-19 outbreak, including its potential impact toward your real estate investment portfolio with Songy Highroads
חוסר הוודאות לגבי השלב בו נמצא מחזור הכלכלה הנוכחי פינה את מקומו לחשש מיידי בהרבה בעקבות התפשטות נגיף הקורונה ברחבי העולם בשבועות האחרונים. שוק ההון כמו שוק ההון, הגיב במהירות, אך האם עלינו לחשוש גם מהשפעות על השקעות נדל”ן, שהן מטבען תגובתיות פחות?
אנו עוקבים אחרי ההתפתחויות בשווקים ונמשיך לעדכן ככל שיידרש.
בברכת בריאות איתנה,
“כל ישראל ערבים זה בזה”. מושג שהוטבע על ידי חז”ל ושמשמעותו בימים אלה, שכל אחד מאיתנו אחראי על שלומו ורווחתו של חברו. אם “כל ישראל” אז על אחת כמה וכמה, כל משקיעי פרופימקס. לפיכך, החלטנו שאם אנו יכולים לעזור למשקיעים שלנו, דווקא בתקופה קשה זו, בקבלת שרות שיועיל לשני הצדדים, שרות של משקיע שלנו, נעשה זאת, כמובן שללא כל תמורה כספית, אלא רק על מנת לעזור לקהל המשקיעים שלנו. הלינק הרצוף, מדבר בעד עצמו.