בעמוד זה ריכוז הודעות ועדכוני Profimex ושותפיה האסטרטגיים בנושא משבר הקורונה והשפעתו על השקעות נדל”ן בכלל והשקעות Profimex בפרט – חודש מאי 2020.
מפגש אינטרנטי בו אירחה Praedium Group, משותפיה האסטרטגיים של פרופימקס, את ד”ר פיטר מויו, לדיון לגבי השפעת ה-covid-19 על הכלכלה בארה”ב ושוק הנדל”ן.
ד”ר פיטר מויו, הינו השותף המייסד והמנהל של חברת הייעוץ הכלכלי Mast Insights, המספקת שירותי ייעוץ כלכלי וכלים אנליטיים למשקיעים ומלווים בשוק הנדל”ן ולסקטורים השונים.
Keen real estate buyers are waiting on the side-lines for sellers to break off the standoff over asset pricing. Nathan Whigham, president of EN Capital and other investors believe that it is only a question of time until seller are willing to sell and the time will most likely come by the end of the summer. “Unless someone comes up with a vaccine tomorrow, I don’t see how we don’t get to a point between now and the end of the year, if not probably at the end of the summer, where people are forced into a position where they have to transact,” Whigham says
CBRE, one of the largest commercial real estate services and investment firms, believes that there will be an increased demand for warehouse space, caused by changes to business supply chains. Given that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a strong decrease in decrease in import and exports, companies may have to develop more domestically orientated supply chains. This may result in additional 400 to 500 million square feet of warehouse space. Further, as people continue to follow social distancing guidelines, a rise in e-commerce use is expected, demanding extra warehouse space
As the economic crisis from Covid-19 continues to impact the US real estate market, effective retail rents are projected to continue to fall 11% in 2020. This would be nearly twice as large of a drop compared to the 2008 recession. Moody predicts that retail will be the hardest hit sector as a result of Covid-19. That is because traditional retail was already experience a disruption from the rise of e-commerce, and Covid-19 only accelerated this process
Two months ago, when the Fed decreased the rates to close to zero, the market anticipated a wave of refinancings for commercial real estate. However, as the full extent of the pandemic paralysed much the economy, those voices came to a halt. However, now that the market can quantify the extent of the downturn and has a better understand of the long-term perspective of asset classes, traditional lending sources are coming back to the table to discuss refinancings. Especially, well-positioned multifamily assets are likely to receive favourable debt instruments
The economic research consultancy, Capital Economics, believes that the most important driver of office occupier demand over the coming years will be the impact of the disruption from the COVID-19 on employment. However, the disruption covered in this article is not the disruption that so many other real estate professionals predict, the increase in home-office employment, but rather the job losses brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. “And even if working from home becomes more prevalent in the next few years, we think that the most important driver of occupier demand will be […] job losses”, according to the research. Their findings suggest that even if employees will continue to work from their home, tenant demand for space will not be necessarily reduced
As the COVID-19 economic crisis continues to hurt demand for travel, many hotel developers are considering putting off construction and looking at new development opportunities. For example, Quinn Palomino, CEO of Virtua Partners, a global private equity firm specializing in commercial real estate, says the company has about half a dozen hospitality projects in “broken construction” that it’s trying to find funding for. She explained that while most of their projects need additional equity, they are looking closely at which projects can produce profitability (returns) and how quickly. “We have to calculate that with post-coronavirus adjusted numbers,” she says. For hotel renovation projects, the negative impact has been even worse. This is because they have on going operational and financing costs on top of the renovation costs
As the institutional real estate investor arena tries to assess the full extent of the Covid-19 pandemic, a recent survey, conducted annually by IPE Real Assets’, proves that most investors had planned to increase the level of investment (42%) over the next 12 months compared to the previous 12 months, or to maintain the same level (47%) (figure 3). Most real estate allocations had been rising (51%) or remaining stable (44%) over the past 18 months (figure 2). In fact, 64% of the survey participants are planning to buy more real estate than to sell, while only 27% are planning to keep their current allocation level
A recent survey of more than 500 US consumers, conducted by First Insight in mid-April, shows that shoppers have different degrees of comfort for distinct types of retail. This insight will be relevant for operators and retail owners, as governors issue new orders that allow some businesses to resume in-store operations. Consumers feel the safest in Grocery Stores (54% of survey participants) and the least safe at Shopping Malls (33% of survey participants). Greg Petro, CEO of First Insight, argues that retailers need to think of ways to ensure safety for consumers, beyond offering gloves and masks at the door
Economists share very different opinions on the extent of the economic decline in the US and the time it will take for the economy to recover. As economic statistics significantly lag those of public health, the full extent of the downturn is not quantifiable at this time. Current estimates from a variety of forecasting organizations however suggest second quarter growth could run from -20% to -40%. Those numbers are reported on a yearly base, which makes them sounds much worse. Second quarter output will contract by “only” -5% to -10%, which is still a historical record high
Many real estate advisory firms are updating their customers and the overall community by issuing reports and conducting regular webinars. Last month, CBRE predicted that the overall US economy will start to see growth as early as 2021, while the commercial real estate industry will have to wait 12 to 30 months. This view has now changed to a more Nike swoosh shape recovery for the real estate industry, described in a more recent Webinar
With the current crisis emerging from COVID-19, the world has entered a new down cycle which will affect all sectors in real estate. While retail, travel and hospitality sectors have been the hardest hit thus far, data centers and industrial space are expected to sustain activity. One of the drivers of declining values appears to be the density of interaction within an asset class as retail, hospitality and even office sectors often require people in close proximity
The current impact on pricing sales is not yet know; however, compared to other property sectors, industrial has been able to better weather economic crisis. That being said, on average, industrial sale prices per square foot dropped 30% during the previous two economic downturns — the Dotcom bust in the early 2000s and the recession that began in 2008 after the financial crisis
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